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Music Earnings Q3 2021: Taking Stock of UMG, Spotify, Live Nation & More Companies

Toronto, ON, Canada / Radio 88.8 - Demo
Glenn Peoples
Nov 22, 2021 | 12:42 PM


As the list of publicly traded music companies grows, so too does the amount of information for the public to follow. Four music companies have gone public in the last two months, bringing major labels, small publishers and a small distributor to a broader group of music streamers, concert promoters and radio broadcasters. Every three months, these companies release reams of detailed financial performance and important metrics to give investors an accurate snapshot of their health and progress — or lack of it.

It’s a lot to follow.

To help readers keep track of recent notable earnings, Billboard has aggregated information about the major publicly traded music companies in a single article. This “mega-thread” contains companies’ revenue, profits, breakdowns by divisions, metrics about fan engagement, and guidance on upcoming quarters. For select companies, Billboard added executives’ comments from the earnings call and securities analysts’ reactions.

The latest earnings reports depict a range of companies generally moving in the right direction. Two areas hit hard by the pandemic, live music and advertising, are recovering from historic low points. Live Nation concert attendance rose almost 13 times above the previous quarter, raising investors’ expectations for 2022 and pushing its share price to an all-time high. iHeartMedia, Cumulus and other radio companies are benefitting from a rebound in advertising spending but are still climbing toward pre-pandemic levels. Elsewhere in the industry, the pandemic merely slowed companies’ growth. Record labels and music publishers suffered small hiccups, mainly from lost physical sales and sharp drops in tour merchandise. Digital music services — satellite radio and music streaming services — fare best and continued to add subscribers. It’s all here in the mega-thread.

 

SPOTIFY

(NYSE: SPOT)

Summary

Spotify met expectations and hit the high end of the guidance provided in July. A notable item in the earnings release was an uptick in average revenue per user due to small price increases in some markets (in the U.S., the family plan was raised from $14.99 to $15.99, for example). Also, advertising revenue recovered from 2020 doldrums and reached $323 million, the second-best ever after $356 million in Q1 2021. The company emphasized podcasts — both value to the platform and contribution to advertising revenue growth. Podcasts have the potential to increase listener engagement, attract creators and lift advertising revenue, but the results are thus far difficult to quantify.

Q3 overall results

  • Revenue: 2.5 billion Euros, +26.6% y/y
  • Operating income: 75 million Euros, +115 million euros y/y
  • Net income: 2 million Euros, +103 million euros y/y

Q3 listener metrics

  • Total listeners: 381 million million, +19% million y/y, +4% q/q
  • Subscribers: 172 million, +19% y/y, +4% q/q
  • Ad-supported listeners: 220 million, +19% y/y, +5% q/q

Q3 ARPU

  • 4.34 euros, +3.6% y/y, +1.2% q/q

Q1-Q3 overall results

  • Revenue: 7.0 billion euros, +22.2% y/y
  • Operating income: 101 million euros, up from a 224-euro million operating loss in Q3 2020
  • Net income: 5 million euros, up from a 456-euro million net loss in Q3 2020

Analyst reactions

  • Wells Fargo (10/27/21) Maintained its “underweight” rating and its $200 price target: “We thought SPOT shook off some demons…which resets the story back towards long-term fundamentals.” However, “[w]hile advertising is likely to become a bigger and more profitable business, we’re not yet convinced it can materially move the margin needle.”
  • JP Morgan (10/27/21) Maintained “overweight” rating and raised price target from $280 to $325. “E-commerce and subscription names (AMZN, NFXL, SPOT, MTCH) will become more attractive toward 2022 as investors could shift dollars from decelerating and Apple-impacted online ad names toward cleaner e-comm and subs that have lapped their toughest comps and may be re-accelerating.”
  • Morgan Stanley (10/26/21) Reiterated “overweight” rating, price target remained at $325 million. “We we look to ’22, we believe it offers a uniquely compelling upside case of Premium user growth accelerates and gross margins expand.”

Misc. items

  • Ad-supported streaming margins were up 1,000 basis points (10 percentage points points), helped by increased advertising in podcasting.
  • Spotify now has 3.2 million podcasts, up from 185,000 3 year ago, and 1 in 5 advertisers use Megaphone, a platform that inserts advertisements into third-party podcasts.

From the earnings call

  • Daniel Ek: “If you are slow, you better be right most of the time. But if you’re fast, you can test and iterate more, which creates a culture of innovation.”
  • Ek: “The primary focus for the business is still very much on growth.. [I]f we were rolling something like [a lower-cost subscription plan]…we would certainly do it to drive growth first and foremost.”
  • Paul Vogel: “Our understanding is that Anchor [Spotify’s podcast creation app] has about 50% market share across the entire podcast industry in terms of usage.”

From the 10-Q filing

  • Spotify spent 45 million euros to acquire Podz (June 17, 2021) and 57 million euros for Betty Labs (March 29, 2021). Neither purchase price was revealed when the deals were announced.
  • The U.S. accounted for 37.7% of Spotify’s revenue in the first nine months of 2021, up from 37.2% in the prior year period.

Guidance for Q4 2021

  • 400-407 million monthly active users
  • 177-181 subscribers
  • Total revenue of 2.54-2.68 billion euros
  • Gross margin of 25.1-26.1%

Recent developments

 

UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP

(AMS: UMG)

Summary

UMG delivered on the financial world’s expectations set before it went public on Sept. 21: double-digit revenue growth. But this being UMG’s first earnings release as a public company, its executives said they’ll wait for full-year results to be more specifics on topics like revenue gains from content acquisitions and improvements in ad-supported revenues from streaming services and social platforms.

Q3 overall results

  • Revenue: 2.15 billion Euros, +16.1% y/y
  • EBITDA (adjusted): 426 million euros, +20.7 y/y

Q3 recorded music

  • Revenue: 1.7 billion euros, +15.5% y/y
  • Streaming revenue: 1.13 billion euros, +14% y/y
  • License and other: 218 million euros, +8.9% y/y
  • Physical: 280 million euros, +8.9 y/y

Q3 publishing

  • Revenue: 363 million euros, +19.8 y/y
  • While performance revenue in Q3 was impacted by last year’s COVID-related slowdown, this was more than offset by revenue from catalogue acquisitions.

Q3 perchandising and other revenue

  • Revenue: 84 million euros, +13.5 y/y

Q1-Q3 overall results

  • Revenue: 5.98 billion Euros, +17.4% y/y at constant currency
  • EBITDA (adjusted): 1.29 billion euros, +23.9% y/y

Earnings call highlights

  • Michael Nash, EVP, digital strategy “Video and social…represent about two-thirds of total ad-supported business for Universal Music, and they’re both growing really fast. People used to think of ad-supported (streaming) as merely a customer acquisition tool, a lower value substitution for subscription. But with the large evolution of social and video, music is now endemically tied to the growth of large global platforms.”
  • Nash wouldn’t give a specific number of the annual run rate for video, social, fitness revenues compared to Sony Music ($400 million) and Warner Music Group ($235 million in recorded music) but said “it’s fair to say our revenue from these new businesses is larger than what our competitors have publicly stated.”

Recent developments

 

SONY MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT

(NYSE, Nasdaq for corporate parent: SONY)

Summary

Sony Music kept pace with Universal Music Group and had similar results by segment: streaming was up 43%, total revenue was up nearly 18% and two categories. physical and downloads, continued their double-digit slide. Over the past two quarters, Sony’s revenue was up 29.5% to $4.65 billion.

Q3 (fiscal Q2) overall results

  • Revenue: $2.47 billion, +17.6% y/y
  • Revenue from music operations (adjusted): $515.2 million, +4.6% y/y
  • Operating income from music operations: $5.4 million, -6.8% y/y
  • Streaming revenue: $1.24 billion, +43% y/y

Q3 (fiscal Q2) recorded music

  • Revenue: $1.42 billion, +26% y/y
  • Operating income (adjusted): $515.2 million, +4.6% y/y
  • Streaming revenue: $1.03 billion, +38% y/y
  • Physical: $183.9 million, -23% y/y
  • Downloads: $55.8 million, -29.4% y/y
  • Other (including synchronization): $150.9 million, +74.8% y/y

Q3 (fiscal Q2) publishing

  • Revenue: $429.7, +26 y/y
  • Streaming revenue: $215.3 million, +47%

Q2-Q3 (fiscal Q1-Q2) 

  • Revenue: $4.65 billion, up 29.5% y/y
  • Operating income: $946.6 million, up 17.9% y/y

Earnings call highlights

  • Sony Music Group (Sony’s music division outside of Japan) is expected to reach record operating income this fiscal year, for the fifth consecutive year.

Recent developments

 

WARNER MUSIC GROUP

(Nasdaq: WMG)

Summary

WMG posted strong gains in the quarter ending Sept. 30, the company announced Monday (Nov. 15). In the recorded music segment, streaming revenue rose 23.7% to $2.97 billion in the fiscal year and accounted for 65.4% of recorded music revenue and 56.1% for the entire company, up from 53.8% the previous year. Company-wide quarterly revenue grew 22.2% to $1.38 billion and full-year revenue improved 18.8% to $5.3 billion.

Fiscal Q4 financial performance 

  • Revenue: $1.38 billion, up 22.2% y/y
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $237 million, up 33.9% y/y

12-month financial performance – fiscal 2021 vs. fiscal 2020

  • Revenue: $5.3 billion, up 18.8% y/y
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $1.1 billion million, up 30.2% y/y

Recorded music revenue – 12 months (Fiscal 2021 vs. Fiscal 2020)

  • Total recorded music: $4.54 billion, up 19.3%
  • Digital: $3.11 billion, up 20.9% y/y
  • Streaming: $2.98 billion bilion, up 23.7% y/y
  • Physical: $549 million, up 26.5% y/y
  • Expanded rights: $599 million, up 14.1% y/y
  • Licensing: $291 million, up 2.8% y/y

Music publishing revenue – 12 months (Fiscal 2021 vs. Fiscal 2020) 

  • Total music publishing: $761 million, 15.8% y/y
  • Performance: $122 million, down 14.1% y/y
  • Digital: $436 million, up 29.4% y/y
  • Mechanical: $49 million, up 2% y/y
  • Synchronization: $144 million, up 21% y/y
  • Other: $10 million, down 9.1% y/y

From the earnings call

  • New revenue streams (social, gaming, fitness) have revenue of $235 million annually (for recorded music only), the same as last quarter.
  • Stephen Cooper, CEO: “Our A&R budgets [and] marketing and promotion budgets have remained, relatively speaking, the same relationship with revenue over the last four, five, six years. And we expect that to continue.”

Misc. stats

  • In recorded music, streaming accounted for 96% of digital revenue and 56% of total revenue.
  • In publishing, digital accounted for $99 million of the $104 million growth in fiscal 2021.

Recent developments

 

SIRIUSXM

(Nasdaq: SIRI)

Summary

SiriusXM reliably grows each quarter, each year. The third quarter was a continuation of steady subscriber acquisition achieved through the economic slowdown and temporarily high unemployment. Because the company’s success is tied to vehicles, the slowdown in auto sales stemming from disrupted supply chains is an indicator of future challenges. Compared to the second quarter, trial starts in new and used cars fell 21% and 6%, respectively, resulting in 1 million fewer opportunities to convert free trials into self-paid subscriptions — “meaningfully reducing but not eliminating our ability to grow our self-pay base in the near term,” said CEO Jennifer Witz.

Q3 financial results

  • Total revenue: $2.2 billion, +8.5% y/y
  • SiriusXM revenue: $1.7 billion, +4.5% y/y
  • Pandora revenue: $538 million, +22.8% y/y
  • Operating income: $628 million, +31.4% y/y
  • EBITDA: TK Euros, +TK y/y
  • Net income: $343 million, +26.1% y/y

Q3 listener metrics

  • SiriusXM self-pay subscribers: 32 million, +4.9% y/y
  • Pandora self-pay subscribers: 6.5 million, +1.7% y/y
  • Pandora ad-supported listeners: 46.1 million, -11.7% y/y

Q3 ARPU

  • SiriusXM: $14.84, +4.9% y/y
  • Pandora subscription: $6.70, -1.9% y/y

From the earnings call

  • Jennifer Witz, CEO: SiriusXM will raise prices on some full-price packages “into the next year.” We’re in “somewhat of an inflationary environment. Other services are raising rates. We see it as a positive environment to do this. And while it could have a slight — a small impact on subscribers, we don’t think it’s material.
  • Scott Greenstein, president and chief content officer. “What we feel great about is that podcasting is a great pool for us to find audio talent. Previously, you had terrestrial radio and you had some bloggers and some YouTube stuff.”
  • Witz: The decision to increase its dividend 50% “was just an acknowledgment that we were generally below median for S&P companies.”

Recent developments

  • Over the summer, company issued new debt and has no debt maturities through August 2026. It also extended the maturity date of a $1.75 billion credit facility — which remains undrawn — to 2026.
  • Stitcher signed one of the top business podcast “The Ed Mylett Show”

2021 Guidance

  • SiriusXM self-pay net additions of over 1.1 million to roughly 32 million (up 3.6% y/y)
  • Total revenue of about $8.65 billion (+TK% y/y from actual 2020)
  • Adjusted EBITDA of about $2.75 billion (+TK% y/y from actual 2020)
  • Free cash flow of over $1.8 billion (+$TK from actual 2020)

 

LIVE NATION

(NYSE: LYV)

Summary

Live Nation’s Q3 was the beginning of a return to form, but the surging share price — up 19% following the earnings release — meant investors have high expectations for 2022 and 2023. A backlog of tours will be spread out through 2023 and into 2024, and Live Nation expects the shows will be spread evenly enough that supply won’t outstrip consumer demand. Any concerns about no-shows are overblown, says management.

Financial performance – year over year (Q3 2021 vs. Q3 2020)

  • Total revenue: $2.7 billion, +1,370% y/y
  • Adjusted operating income: $305.7 million, up from -$319.2 million y/y

Financial performance vs. pre-pandemic (Q3 2021 vs. Q3 2019) 

  • Total revenue: down 28.5% from $2.9 billion
  • Adjusted operating income: down 28.4% to $427.1 million

Attendance metrics vs pre-pandemic period (Q3 2021 vs. Q3 2019)

  • Estimated events: down 35.9% to 5,563
  • Estimated attendance: down 46.1% to 16.9 million
  • Tickets sold: down 29% to 83.1 million

Q1-Q3 by segment

  • Concerts: $2.7 billion, +108% y/y
  • Ticketing: $647 million, +264% y/y
  • Sponsorship and advertising: $242 million, +54% y/y

From the earnings call

  • Michael Rapino, CEO: on extending the summer amphitheater and festival season: “You just force yourself in the last two years to think differently and extract more value from your base…Especially in most of southern America, we can stay open much longer than we historically have.”
  • Joe Berchtold, president and CFO: An increase in ticket prices were “heavily driven by the front of the house, the best seats, where we’ve long known there’s this arbitrage because of the size and continued growth of the secondary market is…moving more money to the artist over the past several years. This year, that trend continued: more VIP [packages], more Platinum tickets, getting that money to the artists.”

Analyst comment

  • Huber Research Partners (11/8/21): increased 12-month price target from $70 to $85. “[T]here is a long way to go and numerous int’l markets are not likely to open until late spring 2022. Re valuation, we don’t believe the laws of gravity are permanently suspended.”

Recent developments

 

IHEARTMEDIA

(NYSE: IHRT)

Summary

iHeartMedia expects revenue to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021. Q3 results showed progress toward that goal with total revenue was up nearly 25% to $928.1 million, 2% lower than Q3 2019. Q4 was off to a good start with revenue (ex-political advertising) up 22%.

Q3 financial results

  • Total revenue: $928.1 million, +24.7% y/y
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $230.2 million, +42% y/y
  • Net income: $3.7 million vs. a 32.1 million net loss

Q1-Q3 financial results

  • Total revenue: $2.5 billion, +24% y/y
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $517 million, +89.2% y/y
  • Net loss: $270.3 million vs. $1.9 billion net loss

Q3 business segments

  • Broadcast radio: $483.5 million, +19.5% y/y
  • Networks: $127.9 million, +7.5% y/y
  • Sponsorships and events: $42.7 million, +47.6% y/y
  • Digital ex-podcast: $141.6 million, +51.3% y/y
  • Podcast: $64.2 million, +183.7% y/y
  • Podcast revenue as a % of total revenue: 6.9%, up from 5.4% in Q1

Misc. financial

  • Total liquidity of $791 million; cash on hand of $369 million.
  • Excluding impact of political ads, October revenue was up about 22% y/y

Q4 guidance

  • Revenue of approximately $544 million, up 10% y/y
  • Adjusted EBITDA will return to 2019 levels by the end of 2021

Recent events

  • Signed a multi-year strategic partnership with DraftKings, the sports betting platform. “We expect sports and sports betting to be a significant growth engine for us going forward,” CEO Bob Pittman said during the 11/5/21 earnings call.
  • Liberty Media sold its remaining iHeartMedia stake on Oct. 5.
  • Excluding impact of political ads, October revenue was up about 22% y/y

 

BELIEVE

(EPA: BLV)

Summary

With the independent music market moving faster than major labels, Believe’s revenue growth was solid but not a surprise: up 27.1% to 144 million euros and up 41% in Europe outside of France and German. In the future, Believe’s bottom line could be bolstered by its purchase of a 25% stake in France’s largest independent label, Play Two, with the option of owning the label outright in a few years.

Q3 financial results

  • Total revenue: 144 million euros, +27.1% y/y
  • Premium solutions revenue: 135 million euros, +29% y/y
  • Automated solutions revenue: 9 million euros, +2.6% y/y

9-month financial results

  • Total revenue: 404 million euros, +30.7% y/y
  • Premium solutions revenue: 378 million euros, +32.2% y/y
  • Automated solutions revenue: 26 million euros, +11.8% y/y

Geographical breakdown

  • APAC-Africa: 32 million euros, +58% y/y
  • Americas: 21 million euros, +50% y/y
  • Europe (ex-France, Germany): 41 million euros, +41% y/y
  • France: 24 million euros, +15.4% y/y
  • Germany: 25 million euros, +2.2% y/y

Guidance

  • Cumulative annual growth rate of revenue of 22-25% through 2025
  • Adjusted EBITDA will double to 5-7% through 2025

Misc.

  • Acquired a 25% stake in French independent label Play Two at a valuation under 50 million euros.
  • Believe has 850,000 clients worldwide

 

TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT

(Nasdaq: TME)

Summary

Tencent Music Entertainment’s latest quarter was a mixed bag: music subscriptions and long-form audio are growing at a good clip, but competitors are eroding the company’s social entertainment business. Taken together, revenue grew only 3% in the quarter. Beijing’s tighter regulations have affected the company, too, although the effects could be short-lived.

Q3 financials 

  • Revenue:  RMB 7.8 billion ($1.2 billion), up 3% y/y
  • Net profit: RMB 1.1 million ($122 million), down 37% y/y
  • Music subscription revenue: RMB 1.9 billion ($295 million), up 30.2% y/y

9 Month Financials (Q1 to Q3)

  • Revenue:  KRW 23.6 billion ($3.7 million), up 13.5% y/y
  • Operating profit: KRW 3.4116.4 billion ($484 million), up 29.4% y/y
  • Net income: KRW 3 billion ($409 million), up 44.1% y/y

Listener metrics

  • Music paying users: 71.2 million, up 37.7% y/y
  • Listeners to long-form audio (audiobooks, podcasts): 140 million, up 89% y/y
  • Mobile music monthly active listeners: 636 million, down 1.5% y/y
  • Music ARPU: RMB 8.9, down 5.3% y/y
  • Long-form audio paying users: 5 million, up more than 100% y/y

Misc.

  • APRU declined from Q3 2020 due to churn in “casual users” that use “other pan-entertainment platforms,” although it increased from Q2 2021.
  • 260,000 independent musicians were on the platform on 9/30/21.

 

MSG ENTERTAINMENT

(NYSE: MSGE)

Summary

Signs of life appeared in MSG Entertainment’s fiscal 2020 Q1. With concerts not back at speed, MSG Entertainment’s other two divisions, the recently acquired MSG Networks and Tao Hospitality Group, carried MSG Entertainment in the quarter. A year earlier, Tao restaurants and clubs were closed outright and the entertainment division mustered only $7.4 million from a smattering of sporting events. The following quarter will get a boost from Christmas — the Rockettes have a string of performances each year — and the beginning of full seasons for the NBA and NHL.

Fiscal 2022 Q1 financial results

  • Total revenue: $294.5 million, +72.7% y/y
  • Operating loss: $83.3 million, -41.9% y/y
  • Adjusted operating income: $10.3 million, +52% y/y

Fiscal 2022 Q1 revenue by segment

  • Entertainment: $34.2 million, +350% y/y
  • MSG Networks: $141.5 million, -10.1% y/y
  • Tao Hospitality Group: $119.5 million, +1,560% y/y

Recent developments

  • MSG Entertainment completed its acquisition of MSG Networks on July 9, 2021
  • MSG Entertainment and MSG Sports have a multi-year marketing partnership with BetMGM

 

RYMAN HOSPITALITY PROPERTIES

(NYSE: RHP)

Summary

Ryman Hospitality’s entertainment division is home to a variety of country brands and properties: The Grand Ole Opry; the Nashville Auditorium and Crazy Horse in Nashville; WSM radio station in Nashville; and Ole Red, a restaurant/music venue venture with country star Blake Shelton. After the pandemic shut down much of Ryman’s business in 2020, strong triple-digit growth in Q3 is not a surprise.

Q3 entertainment segment

  • Total revenue: $49.1 million, +300% y/y
  • EBITDA (adjusted): $14.1 million, +317.8 y/y

Q1-Q3 entertainment segment

  • Total revenue: $98.6 million, +124.1% y/y
  • EBITDA (adjusted): $-20.1 million, +184.2 y/y

Recent developments

  • Ryman’s Ole Red brand is planning a location in Nashville International Airport. It has locations in Nashville, Tishomingo, OK; and Gatlinburg, TN.
  • Ryman will close on an acquisition of Block 21 in Austin, TX, a deal put on hold when touring and music venues shut down in March 2020. The TV show “Austin City Limits” is filmed at a venue in Block 21.

 

RESERVOIR MEDIA

(Nasdaq: RSVR)

Summary

Reservoir’s acquisition of Tommy Boy Music helped recorded music revenues grow nearly $5 million, or 149%, in the third quarter from the prior-year period.

Q3 (Q2 fiscal 2022) financial results

  • Total revenue: $30.4 million, +45% y/y
  • Operating income: $7.9 million, +49% y/y
  • Net income: $4.5 million, +60.7% y/y

Q3 (Q2 fiscal 2022) music publishing revenue

  • Digital: $11.6 million, +44.1% y/y
  • Performance: $4.4 million, +TK% y/y
  • Synchronization: $4.1 million, +47.8% y/y
  • Mechanical: $1.0 million, +TK% y/y
  • Other: $1.1 million, +TK% y/y

Q3 (Q2 fiscal 2022) recorded music revenue

  • Digital: $4.8 million, +169.8% y/y
  • Physical: $2.5 million, +207.3% y/y
  • Synchronization: $0.3 million, +9% y/y
  • Neighboring rights: $0.5 million, +26% y/y

Fiscal 2022 guidance

  • Revenue: $100-104 million, +25% y/y
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $37-40 million, +14% y/y

Recent developments

  • Invested in $12 million Series B round of Audio Up, an audio entertainment and podcast company (10/21/21)
  • Acquired a minority stake in Outdustry, a music services company serving China. (7/22/21) Reservoir inked a deal with Outdustry in 2020 to sub-publish its publishing catalog in China.
  • Inked global administration deal with Joni Mitchell.

 

CUMULUS MEDIA

(Nasdaq: CMLS)

Q3 financial results

  • Total revenue: $237.7 million, +TK% y/y
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $45.8 million, +125.4% y/y
  • Net income: $27.4 million, up from a $15.8 million net loss

Q3 revenue by segment

  • Broadcast: $185.9 million, +15.1% y/y
  • Digital: $33.3 million, +67.1% y/y
  • Other: $18.5 million, +23.9% y/y
music earnings q3 2021 taking stock of umg spotify live nation more companies