More than 12 years after its release and its original chart run, Miguel’s “Sure Thing” hits No. 1 on Billboard’s Pop Airplay chart (dated May 27).
The song, on ByStorm/Black Ice/Jive/Legacy/RCA Records, completes the longest ascent to the Pop Airplay summit from a title’s release, having first hit Billboard’s charts in February 2011, following its November 2010 release on Miguel’s debut LP, All I Want Is You. An R&B/hip-hop radio hit in its original run, “Sure Thing” crowned the Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs chart, as well as R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay, for a week in May 2011.
On the all-genre, multimetric Billboard Hot 100, “Sure Thing” reached No. 36 over a 23-week stay in March-August 2011.
In 2022, the song resurged thanks to newfound attention on TikTok, where a sped-up version has soundtracked more than 4 million clips. It debuted on Billboard’s Streaming Songs chart this January and ranked at No. 30 on the most recently published, May 20-dated chart with 10.6 million official streams in the United States May 5-11, according to Luminate.
On the May 20-dated all-format Radio Songs survey, “Sure Thing” rose 7-6, up 6% to 51.6 million in audience. On the Hot 100, it pushed 15-14, reaching a new best – as well as a new career high for Miguel, surpassing the No. 15 peak of Mariah Carey’s “#Beautiful,” on which he’s featured, in 2013.
(Helping maintain familiarity with top 40 radio listeners, Miguel tallied six Pop Airplay hits in 2012-22, rising as high as No. 12 as featured on Kygo’s “Remind Me to Forget” in 2018, his best career rank prior to the revival of “Sure Thing.”)
Meanwhile, the comeback to new heights for “Sure Thing” has been historic, as the single broke the record for the most weeks ever spent on Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs: 78 (through the latest, May 20-dated survey, where it placed at No. 5, marking its first appearance in the chart’s top five since September 2011).
“We were keeping a close eye on the metrics,” says RCA head of promotion Keith Rothschild about the decision to promote the song to pop radio after TikTok sparked new interest in it. It debuted on the Pop Airplay chart dated Feb. 25, at No. 40, and hits No. 1 in its 14th week on the chart, up 7% in plays May 12-18.
While “Sure Thing” is far removed from its original release, “programmers were not hesitant at all,” Rothschild says, especially with other catalog songs recently finding new life on radio, whether from TikTok or synchs, including Kate Bush’s “Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God),” Lady Gaga’s “Bloody Mary” and The Weeknd’s “Die for You.”
Until “Sure Thing,” “Die for You” — originally from 2016 and remixed this year with Ariana Grande, as it, too, received new radio promotion by Republic — briefly held the record for the longest wait to hit No. 1 on Pop Airplay from a track’s release, as it topped the tally for two weeks this February.
“We knew the song was a hit, as it was a No. 1 R&B/hip-hop record when it was originally out,” says Rothschild of “Sure Thing.” “It was never worked at pop, so we asked programmers to put it into callout. The numbers came back massive, and we knew it was game on.”
