The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Feb. 24), two of the year’s most-anticipated new releases vie for No. 1, while a third-party candidate originally from 2022 also gets into the mix.
Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign, Vultures 1 (YZY): Kanye’s and Ty Dolla’s long-awaited and much-delayed – can just assume both of those descriptors with any Ye-related release at this point – collaborative new LP Vultures 1 is the former’s first wide release on his new independent label YZY. The 16-track effort features appearances from big-name collaborators like Travis Scott, Playboi Carti and Chris Brown – though none are actually credited on the feature-less tracklist – as well as a guest vocal from Ye’s 10-year-old daughter North on “Talking.” (It also features an interpolation of Donna Summer’s disco classic “I Feel Love” on “Good (Don’t Die),” which the Summer estate has decried as unauthorized.)
The album was originally supposed to debut on Friday, after a Chicago listening event, but ultimately trickled out (with a false start or two) on streaming services over Saturday. The incomplete first tracking week for the set – with only five full days of consumption – will likely dampen its opening numbers a little, as will its lack of physical availability, as the album is not yet available for purchase on CD or vinyl. (The set also has received muted support on many top Spotify playlists for an album of its buzz, likely due to past and ongoing Ye-related controversies.)
However, with high anticipation for the set (as Ye always seems to garner, regardless of his real-life backlash), it should still do fairly sizeable streaming numbers. As of Wednesday, it still claimed four songs in the top 10 on Spotify’s US Daily Top 200 and five in Apple Music’s real-time top 10, with its “Carnival” leading both listings. Given Kanye’s history on the Billboard 200 – which boasts 10 No. 1 albums, including controversy-embroiled more recent releases like 2019’s JESUS IS KING and 2021’s Donda – it would be foolish to bet against him finding similar success with Vultures.
Usher, Coming Home (Mega/Gamma): Coming Home represents a number of firsts for Usher: His first album of the 2020s, his first through independent record label Mega (in partnership with the Larry Jackson-founded alternative distributor Gamma) and his first since being minted as a Super Bowl headliner. Technically, the set debuted two days before the Big Game, but the album will undoubtedly be boosted by the added exposure of the most-watched halftime performance in SB history – even though the pop&B superstar didn’t actually perform any songs from the new album, opting to stick to a set of more-established classics.
Nonetheless, Coming Home does arrive with some built-in success: “Good Good,” the album’s lead single alongside next-gen ATLiens Summer Walker and 21 Savage, has previously reached No. 25 on the Billboard Hot 100, already his biggest hit on the chart in a decade. The set features additional collabs with hitmakers Latto, Burna Boy, H.E.R. and Jung Kook (on a previously released remix of the latter’s top 5 Hot 100 hit “Standing Next to You”). All of these should help streams of the set — and sales are also expected to be robust, with Coming Home available on CD, in five different vinyl variants, and through both CD and vinyl box sets that include branded merch. (Digital editions of the album have also been heavily discounted.)
While Usher’s new album will likely be his best-performing LP this week, he should also see some major movement with his back catalog – most notably with his Billboard 200-topping 2004 juggernaut Confessions. The classic album, which celebrates its 20th anniversary this year, had a whopping seven tracks make its way to Usher’s halftime setlist, including the set-capping Lil Jon and Ludacris collab “Yeah!” and the much-buzzed-about Alicia Keys duet performance “My Boo.” It re-enters the top half of the 200 this week, jumping 140-92, and should make an even bigger leap next week.
Noah Kahan, Stick Season (Mercury/Republic): The weather may be warming outside – slowly – but on the Billboard 200, Stick Season may simply never end. Alt-folk singer-songwriter Noah Kahan’s breakout album, which has only grown in popularity and impact in the 16 months since its October 2022 release, has spent the entirety of post-holidays 2024 in the Billboard 200’s top 10, climbing back as high as No. 4, after having peaked at No. 3 last June following the set’s We’ll All Be Here Forever deluxe re-release.
Stick Season slips to No. 7 this week, but it may very well return to the top three once more next week, following another, even deluxer reissue of the set. This one is titled Stick Season (Forever), and features a whopping 30 tracks, including previously released Hot 100-charting collaborative remixes of Stick originals with Post Malone (“Dial Drunk”), Kacey Musgraves (“She Calls Me Back”) and Hozier (“Northern Attitude”). In addition to all of those, the set also boasts two (well, one and a half) totally unreleased cuts: the solo ballad “Forever” and the Brandi Carlile-guesting redo of We’ll All Be Here Forever fan favorite “You’re Gonna Go Far.” (All versions of the album, new and old, are combined together for tracking and charting purposes, under its original title: Stick Season.)
The new edition of the now-blockbuster set has no physical release available, but has already spurred plenty of extra streaming activity for both the original album and its previously released “new” tracks – as well as for the brand-new “Forever,” which is still in the top 50 on both Spotify and Apple Music’s daily charts.
