TikTok creates viral hits. YouTube is unparalleled in its ubiquity. But music subscription services pay the bills.
More than three out of every five dollars earned by U.S. record labels in the first half of 2024 — 60.2% to be exact — came from premium subscription services, according to the RIAA’s mid-year report. That marks the first time subscriptions exceeded a 60% share of total revenue, topping the 59.5% share in the first half of 2023 and the 59.3% mark for full-year 2023.
Ad-supported on-demand streaming, on the other hand, has lost momentum, growing just 2.5%, half the rate of paid subscriptions. The slowdown has been dramatic: Three years ago, advertising revenue rebounded from a pandemic slowdown by surging 54.1% in the first half of 2021 and another 17.7% in the first half of 2022. Its share of total industry revenue — 10.4% — has slipped, too, from 10.5.%, 11.3% and 10.5% in the three preceding first-half periods.
Other ad-supported segments also lag paid subscriptions’ growth rate. SoundExchange distributions, which include some ad-supported streaming as well as royalties paid by satellite radio subscribers, rose just 3.8% to $517 million. Other ad-supported streaming, which covers services not operating under statutory licenses, fell 1.5% to $155 million.
The situation around advertising is worse than the numbers might suggest. Ad-supported, on-demand streaming isn’t confined to services such as Spotify’s free tier and YouTube. A new generation of platforms, such as TikTok and Instagram, are grouped into this category, too. Without these emerging platforms, ad-supported streaming would look even worse off.
For an industry that must constantly seek growth, advertising is too small to play the role. In the most recent quarter, Spotify got 12% of its revenue from advertising — both music and podcasts — compared to 88% from subscriptions. Even if advertising becomes a bigger part of the business, CEO Daniel Ek said during the company’s April 23 earnings call, it won’t be a major factor in helping the company reach 20% revenue growth. “Anything we can do on our subscription side will obviously materially outperform any improvement on the ad side,” said Ek.
Free music has played an important role in building today’s music ecosystem, though. In 2009, author Chris Anderson followed The Long Tail with a lesser-known book titled Free that promoted the notion that not charging for digital goods can be a wise strategy. While The Long Tail was a smash success, Free never rose to the same level of renown. But Anderson’s idea proved to have merit. The same year Free was published, Spotify launched a “freemium” music streaming service in the United Kingdom—the world’s third-largest music market—that utilized a free, ad-supported tier intended to drive listeners to the paid version. Ad-supported royalties were miniscule, but it worked as planned. Free listening turned out to be an effective tool to attract customers that would, at some point in the future, become some of Spotify’s 246 million subscribers.
The growth potential for the subscription business lays outside the U.S. Globally, subscription streaming accounted for 48.9% of recorded music revenue in 2023, according to the IFPI, more than 11 percentage points below the share in the U.S. (The RIAA reports retail value in the U.S. while the IFPI reports wholesale values for each market.) Worldwide subscription penetration is only 15%, Warner Music Group CFO Bryan Castellani noted during an Aug. 7 earnings call, “and there’s a lot of headroom to go from 800 million subscriptions today to well over a billion over the next five years.”
The future may be a combination of free and subscription. In May, Sony Music Entertainment CEO Rob Stringer called for streaming platforms to charge users of ad-supported tiers a “modest fee” to make free streaming “more than a marketing funnel” to attract customers. Stringer also called on short-form video platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts to step up their payments to rights owners. "More and more, these are primary consumption sources, and they need to be valued accordingly," he said.
With subscriptions now exceeding 60% of U.S. revenue and advertising losing share, free platforms will likely come under more pressure to deliver more royalties. Until that happens, though, expect the industry to increasingly put its hopes for revenue growth in subscriptions.
