The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated July 26, we look at some much-anticipated albums and exciting surprise drops looking to impact next week’s race to the chart’s top.
Jackboys & Travis Scott, Jackboys 2 (Cactus Jack/Epic): The second release from the Cactus Jack label’s semi-eponymous rap collective — consisting of members Don Toliver, Sheck Wes, Chase B, SoFaygo, Wallie the Sensei, Luxury Tax 50, and of course label head Travis Scott — arrived on Sunday (July 13), already two days into the tracking week. But five days is more than enough time for Scott, one of the consistently best-selling rappers of the last decade, to do big business and launch a serious threat to the Billboard 200’s top spot.
The set is widely available in a seven-track digital download and vinyl release, as well as a 17-song widely available digital download and streaming set, and a webstore-exclusive CD. Then, as is often the case with Scott’s releases, there is a wide variety of physical options also for sale through the webstore — including five different vinyl editions, three standard CD variants and two expanded packaging CD variants (in larger packaging and with different covers). There are also four webstore-exclusive download albums available each with 17 songs, each with different covers and three with one unique bonus track each.
All these physical releases should add up to another major sales debut for Scott and his crew — and the set is also off to a very strong start on streaming, with multiple top 10 entries on both the Apple Music real time chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing. The combination seems likely to result in Jackboys 2 following its predecessor, which launched with 154,000 units upon its late 2019 release (despite its full tracklist being just seven songs — though it had a bevy of merch/digital download album bundles helping its first-week numbers), to a No. 1 debut, making it the first album to interrupt Morgan Wallen’s Billboard 200 reign since I’m the Problem debuted two months earlier.
Justin Bieber, Swag (ILH/Def Jam): If not for Jackboys 2, it might have been a fairly close race for the top spot between I’m the Problem and this week’s most unexpected chart contender: Swag, the surprise new album from Canadian pop superstar Justin Bieber, announced a mere 10 hours before its Friday (July 11) release. The unexpectedness of its release was nearly matched by the unexpectedness of its sound — an alternative-leaning R&B sonic palette, heavily influenced by artist collaborators Dijon, Mk.gee and Eddie Benjamin, and by new go-to writer/producer Carter Lang.
The 21-track project — which also features appearances from guest rappers Lil B, Sexyy Red and Gunna, as well as gospel singer Marvin Winans and a trio of skits with comedian Druski — has been a major force on streaming since its Friday debut, swarming both the Spotify and Apple Music charts. Though its presence has receded a bit on both in the days since (particularly following the Jackboys 2 bow), lead single “Daisies” still resides atop both charts, and the overall streaming numbers for the album in its first week should end up being fairly tremendous.
However, unlike Jackboys 2, streaming will have to make for the great majority of Swag’s overall first-week units. As is usually the case with such surprise releases, there’s no physical version of the album yet available for purchase — it’s not expected to arrive until December — meaning that all of its sales will have to come via digital downloads, with no additional variants yet available to boost its numbers there. That will likely cap Swag at a first-week number below where it would need to be to compete with Jackboys 2, potentially making it Bieber’s first original full-length studio album not to debut atop the Billboard 200.
Clipse, Let God Sort Em Out (Self-Released): In plenty of earlier tracking weeks this year, the new album from venerated Virginia hip-hop duo the Clipse would’ve been a real contender for a Billboard 200 No. 1 debut. However, in a crowded week also including new sets from two major stars, a reigning behemoth in Morgan Wallen’s 37-track blockbuster, and also a still-rising breakout success in the soundtrack to Netflix’s animated musical KPop Demon Hunters, it might instead have to set its sights on a top five debut on the chart.
Still, it should have a chance to make such a bow, thanks in large part to expected robust sales. The set is available for purchase in six vinyl variants, two of which are signed, as well as three CD variants (one signed), two cassettes and a whopping 13 boxed sets in branded boxes, with branded clothing and a CD included. (The physical editions, which are widely available, have a 12-song tracklist; the streaming and digital download versions add in a 13th song, “So Be It.”) The set also had a strong streaming debut, with most of its 13 tracks reaching the Spotify and Apple Music daily charts, though its numbers there will likely be dwarfed by the Jackboys and Bieber sets.
Nonetheless, the combination should make for easily the best Billboard 200 showing from the duo since its debut, 2002’s Lord Willin’, which bowed at No. 4 on the chart. (Its last effort before the duo’s recent hiatus, 2009’s Till the Casket Drops, reached just No. 41 — though during a crowded Christmas season that December.)
IN THE MIX
TWICE, This Is For (JYP) Another release that might have been able to contend for the top spot in a slower week is the latest from K-pop superpower TWICE, This Is For. The girl group’s new set is expected to sell well, being available in 15 CD variants (all with collectibles included, some randomized) as well as three vinyl editions, and a mid-week deluxe edition for download and streaming. The latter also includes two bonus tracks, one of which (“Takedown”) is also available on another album likely to appear in next week’s Billboard 200 top 10, the KPop Demon Hunters soundtrack.
ATEEZ, Golden Hour: Part 3 (KQ/RCA/Legacy): Golden Hour already scored a No 2 debut on the Billboard 200 for K-pop boy band ATEEZ upon its June release — but now the EP is available in the widely expanded In Your Fantasy edition, which adds an extra 10 tracks (mostly solos from the octet’s individual members) to the previous five-track set. The deluxe edition was released via six CD variants, all with collectibles (some randomized), which should drive sales and propel the set back to the chart’s top 10.
GIVĒON, Beloved (Not So Fast/Epic): It’s a bit of tough luck for the R&B hitmaker that his sophomore effort debuts in such a packed week — including the late-announced comeback of his old “Peaches” collaborator Bieber — but the album should still stream and sell fairly well, helped by five vinyl and two CD variants (one of each of which is signed). It could be a photo finish as to whether the set will bring GIVĒON to the top 10 on the Billboard 200, after his 2022 set Give or Take topped out at No. 11. (His 2021 EP compilation When It’s All Said and Done… Take Time reached No. 5, marking his career peak to date.)
