The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated August 2, we look at the latest from Tyler, The Creator, which looks to headed for a huge debut despite using barely more than half the available tracking week.
Tyler, The Creator, Don’t Tap the Glass (Columbia): In his 15-plus year career to this point, hip-hop star Tyler, The Creator had never released official albums in back-to-back years , generally operating at an every-other-year pace and actually taking three years in between 2021’s Call Me If You Get Lost and 2024’s Chromakopia. But just nine months after the latter album debuted to the best first-week numbers of his career, Tyler is already back with its follow-up: Don’t Tap the Glass, the up-tempo release he describes as being made for “Dancing. Driving. Running. Any type of movement… Only at full volume.”
The 10-track, 28-minute release dropped this Monday morning (July 20), after having been announced just a few days before. Unsurprisingly for an artist of Tyler’s stature, the set instantly swarmed the top of DSP daily charts, occupying 10 of the top 11 spots on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing and currently claiming six of the top seven spots on Apple Music’s real-time chart — with the set’s opening track, the Pharrell-assisted “Big Poe,” leading on both. Even in less than four full days of tracking, the set should bow to blockbuster streaming numbers.
It should sell in large numbers as well. Despite the semi-surprise drop — which often means that artists don’t have a physical released prepared in time to go out with it, as was the case two Fridays ago (July 11) with Justin Bieber’s Swag — Don’t Tap the Glass is available for purchase in a variety of physical formats. Tyler is selling Glass on both CD and vinyl through his website, with one exclusive additional track to go with the 10-track version available for streaming and digital download. It’s also out in three different boxed sets, each with a piece of branded clothing and a CD copy contained in a branded box.
Will it all be enough for the album to bow at No. 1, even without the first three-plus days of available tracking? It seems likely — Chromakopia already set the precedent last November, debuting at the same time of the week and still racking up a career-best 299,000 units, according to Luminate. Glass will likely come in under that number, due largely to its shorter 10-song tracklist and less-pre-hyped release, but anything within range of it will probably be able to cruise to the top spot — with no other new releases on its level this week, Swag likely to recede somewhat in its second frame, and Morgan Wallen’s long-reigning I’m the Problem slipping to weekly numbers under half of that Chromakopia tally.
BTS, Permission to Dance on Stage – Live (BIGHIT): As the world waits for BTS’ official return, with all seven members now returned from compulsory military service, fans have a release to tide them over in the Permission to Dance on Stage – Live set. The album captures the K-pop superstars’ 2021-22 mini-tour — which brought them to three venues for four shows each, and was previously featured in the Permission to Dance on Stage – LA concert film, shot over the tour’s four stops at L.A.’s SoFi Stadium in late 2021.
The 22-track set should stream respectably — though obviously not as well as a brand-new BTS album would — and should sell in big numbers, thanks to five CD variants available for purchase, all containing branded bonus collectibles, some of which are randomized. It might not be enough to get the set past Tyler’s latest, but it should help secure the group its eighth top 10 album on the Billboard 200.
Alex Warren, You’ll Be Alright, Kid (Atlantic): What about the guy who’s had the No. 1 song in the country for seven of the past eight weeks? Alex Warren is perhaps the year’s biggest breakout artist thanks to his Billboard Hot 100-dominating “Ordinary,” and on Friday he released his official debut album, You’ll Be Alright, Kid — a 21-track expansion of his previously released You’ll Be Alright, Kid (Chapter 1), which he officially classified as an EP despite it containing 11 tracks (including “Ordinary”).
Sales of the 21-track new version should be boosted by its availability in five vinyl variants (including one signed), as well as a standard and signed CD. And the set should certainly stream very well, propelled not only by the massive numbers of “Ordinary” — still in the top five on Streaming Songs after 20 weeks on the chart — but the strong debut of new song “Eternity,” which debuted at No. 3 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA for its Friday release, though it has since of course gotten buried under Tyler’s Glass.
IN THE MIX
Jessie Murph, Sex Hysteria (Columbia): Genre-blurring singer-songwriter Jessie Murph’s new album arrives after she scored her first unaccompanied Hot 100 smash this spring with the No. 15-peaking (so far) “Blue Strips.” The 15-track streaming set should perform well, and could also rack up some solid sales numbers thanks to two CD and vinyl variants for sale, each of which includes two exclusive tracks not available on the streaming version.
