After a tumultuous 2024, Drake largely stabilized his standing throughout 2025’s first half, with his Billboard 200-topping PartyNextDoor teamup LP $ome $exy $ongs 4 U and its Billboard Hot 100 No. 2-peaking breakout hit “Nokia.” Now, he’s trying to reclaim his top-dog status with his upcoming Iceman album — starting with the advance singles “What Did I Miss?” and “Which One.”
Whether Drake will be able to climb back to his early-decade perch, however, is unclear from the early response to those two singles. “Miss” had a strong No. 2 debut on the Hot 100 but has slid out of the top 30 in the three weeks since, while “Which One” (featuring star U.K. rapper Central Cee) bows at No. 23 this week.
Are either of these two songs likely to last as a hit? And how imperative is it that Drake score a Hot 100 No. 1 at some point on this album cycle? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Drake’s lead Iceman single “What Did I Miss?” debuted at No. 2 on the Hot 100 four weeks ago, and has since slid out of the top 30. Has that performance been better, worse, or about what you would have expected for the song?
Kyle Denis: It’s a bit worse than I expected, and I wasn’t expecting too much to begin with. I enjoy “What Did I Miss?” I think it’s a solid record, and it’s nice to hear Drake straight-up rapping with his back somewhat against the wall. But the song lacks the magnetism that a lead single should have; the hook is also on the weaker side, and the music video isn’t much to write home about. I’m not surprised that casual listeners haven’t bought into the song.
Carl Lamarre: Just about right. The song is a safe Drake record: catchy barbs laced with his usual shoot-first energy. For Drake, a chart slip like this raises an eyebrow, but it’s not panic-worthy. After all, he delivered one of Q1’s hottest songs with “Nokia.” People love to circle Drake’s missteps — whether it’s Pusha or Kendrick — but tracks like “Nokia” and “Somebody Loves Me” prove that when needed, he can still swing for the fences.
Jason Lipshutz: About what I expected. “What Did I Miss?” is more of a reaction than a bid for a summertime hit, with Drake tossing out wounded, provocative bars rather than hooks that continue the crossover momentum of his spring smash “Nokia.” A song like “What Did I Miss?” is designed to trigger a sprint to your streaming service of choice on the night it’s released, not persist on hip-hop radio for weeks on end — hence, the reason why the song blasted into the runner-up spot on the Hot 100 upon its release, and has since slid down the chart.
Michael Saponara: The debut feels about right, but I thought it would have more legs through the rest of the summer and hold strong around the top 10 to 20. “What Did I Miss?” had the right intentions. I felt like Drake had plenty to get off his chest and this was a proper launch into the Iceman era.
Andrew Unterberger: Better than I expected at first, worst after. A No. 2 debut was more than acceptable for this song, but falling as precipitously as it has in the weeks since — despite an official music video, a performance at Drake’s headlining appearance at Wireless Festival and his online grousing about debuting one spot short of the goal — is sorta telling.
2. “Which One,” featuring Central Cee, debuts at No. 23 on the Hot 100 this week. Do you think Drake should be concerned about a debut outside of the top 20, or is it understandable for this song at this point in his album cycle?
Kyle Denis: For what it’s worth, “Which One” is this week’s highest new entry on the Hot 100. Nonetheless, it’s difficult for me to wrap my head around a new Drake song — particularly one that’s this catchy and features one of the hottest new rappers of the 2020s — not just debuting outside of the top 20, but also behind several holdover hits from the previous year. “Which One” was never going to debut at No. 1, but a top 10 debut, at least, should have been guaranteed.
Carl Lamarre: A little of both. If my batting average looked like Drake’s — a.k.a the all-time Hot 100 hit leader — I wouldn’t be too stressed about it. That said, Team Drake probably misread this record’s hit potential. And because expectations are higher than ever, anything shy of 2018’s dominance (“God’s Plan,” “In My Feelings,” “Nice For What”) feels like a miss. As much as I can scream about “Nokia” being both a chart and cultural banger, the fact remains: his last solo No. 1 was 2021’s “What’s Next.”
Jason Lipshutz: Considering his record-setting track record as a Hot 100 fixture, Drake should not be concerned with any chart debut, much less that of a collaborative track that’s not a lead single to a new project. “Which One” pairs Drake with Central Cee, at a moment in which the London rapper is continuing to make strides in North America… but the song itself is too weak to make for any sort of blockbuster team-up, and doesn’t cater to either of their strengths. “Which One” might be a missed opportunity, but I don’t think the song speaks to any macro trends with regards to Drake’s commercial viability.
Michael Saponara: This was where Drake lost me a bit. With so much riding on Iceman and the momentum heading into the project, I was hoping he’d go with something in the chamber that felt bulletproof or more undeniable when it comes to being a hit that can live in the Iceman zeitgeist. A debut outside the top 20 feels like that message was sent as well.
Andrew Unterberger: I mean… it’s not great! I doubt anyone expected another No. 2 debut, but I think most Drake fans would’ve expected the song to settle somewhere into the lower half of the top 10. Then it looked like they were gonna have to settle for the lower half of the top 20. Now it appears even that was optimistic. And it’s not like the song got buried under an album bomb from a much-anticipated drop; this was the week’s highest-debuting song. It’d be one thing if “Which One” was a tossed-off rant or stream-of-consciousness diary entry clearly not meant for mass appeal, but this was clearly made with global pop intentions. (Though to be fair, it at least did do a little better on that front, bowing at No. 14 on the Global 200.)
3. Do you see either of these two songs sticking around the Hot 100 and in the culture for the rest of the summer? Which one is more likely to have that endurance?
Kyle Denis: I still expect “Which One” to build into a sizable late summer hit, especially if radio latches onto it. In terms of the Iceman rollout and Drake’s post-beef narrative, however, I think “What Did I Miss” will ultimately prove to be the more important song of the two.
Carl Lamarre: No. The bar is too damn high. Drake doesn’t get to drop “solid” or “cool.” Reality is, he has to drop anthems. If this rollout is meant to be an OVO opus, he’ll need to recalibrate. Neither of these records will get him there. Maybe “Which One” sneaks into OVO Fest via a fire video, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Jason Lipshutz: “What Did I Miss?” at least captures Drake at a specific moment in time — picking up the pieces following a public spat with Kendrick Lamar, side-eyeing those he thought he could trust — and is compelling as both a historical document and a rare showcase of his vulnerability. Neither song will define Drake’s musical output in the way that “Nokia,” his most downright fun hit in years, has already lodged secured its spot on the list of his months-running smashes, but “What Did I Miss?” is more memorable than “Which One,” for sure.
Michael Saponara: I don’t see much traction for either remaining chart-friendly, but “What Did I Miss?” feels as if it could have some more juice tied to the themes of Iceman and the rest of the rollout.
Andrew Unterberger: Seems to me like the people have spoken about these two. Could be wrong, but I imagine Drake will regroup and move on from them pretty quickly.
4. Though No. 1 Hot 100 debuts were nearly automatic for Drake for most of the 2020s, the best he’s done this year is No. 2 (for both “Nokia” and “What Did I Miss?”). Is it important for him to end the year with at least one No. 1 song, or is he fine peaking with a couple of No. 2s considering how low he seemed to have fallen last year?
Kyle Denis: Considering this is a rapper who has gloated about “having more slaps [Hot 100 top 10 hits] than The Beatles” and celebrated tying Michael Jackson for the most Hot 100 chart-toppers amongst male soloists, a No. 1 before 2025 ends is absolutely important. In a perfect world, the longevity of “Nokia” alone should have put all this conversation to bed. But when you consciously align your brand with commercial success, specifically No. 1 singles, you’re forever held to that standard.
Carl Lamarre: Let’s be real: Drake literally called out Alex Warren for blocking his No. 1 debut with “What Did I Miss.” He’s not in the game for second place. Silver medals don’t mean much to Drizzy Drake Rogers. And while his 15-year run doesn’t get enough credit, the vultures have been circling, waiting for a slip. Drake’s story is built on dominance — on breaking Billboard. To settle for anything less than No. 1 isn’t just a loss, it’s off-brand. He’s not here to play in the Finals, the brother is here to hoist trophies.
Jason Lipshutz: “Nokia” represents a far more significant achievement than a random Drake song debuting at No. 1 on the Hot 100 and then quickly fading from memory. Following the Kendrick Lamar feud last year, Drake scoring another major pop smash in the near future seemed wildly unlikely — but with “Nokia,” listeners sniffed out the most joyful moment on $ome $exy $ongs 4 U and turned it into a top 10 mainstay. Battle lines were drawn across popular hip-hop last year as Drake and Kendrick Lamar exchanged diss tracks, but casual rap fans would rather replay exciting singles than pledge undying allegiance to one side of a feud; even though it likely won’t reach the top of the Hot 100, “Nokia” proved that, regardless of his “performance” in that feud, Drake can still produce a modern mega-smash.
Michael Saponara: Historically, a No. 1 hit would be huge as it would break his tie with Michael Jackson and give him the most Hot 100 chart-toppers of any male solo artist, which would certifiably stamp his comeback post-beef and give him another notch on his Chrome Hearts belt with some hardware to go along with it.
However, not all hits are the same. Yes, the stats are great, but a song like “Nokia” had a months-long buzz and is a club hit with more cultural relevance and cachet than some tracks we see launch at No. 1, and quickly fall off the face of the earth with no impact. So even though it “only” reached No. 2, I believe that can outweigh the shooting star at No. 1 that’s nowhere to be found in the weeks to follow.
Andrew Unterberger: “Nokia” was exactly the song that Drake needed this year, and I think it was totally fine that it only peaked at No. 2 — hell, so did its spiritual predecessor “Hotline Bling” a decade ago. Drake loves No. 1s of course, but he didn’t need one, at least not at that point. And he probably still wouldn’t, if he hadn’t publicly called out Alex Warren and promised that he’d be “taking that [No. 1 spot] soon don’t worry one song or another. Rule changes and all.” Now he’s at risk of fairly major embarrassment if he can’t put his money where his mouth is — and while it’s been historically inadvisable to bet against Drake on the charts, he’s moving in the wrong direction so far.
5. Plot out what your vision for the perfect third single from Iceman would consist of.
Kyle Denis: I think Drake has gotta get back with the ladies again. It could be cool to see him lock back in with 40 for a “Take Care”-esque midtempo to carry us into the fall. Ideally, he offers a more mature reflection on the state of his romantic life and gets someone like Mariah the Scientist on the hook to nod to a new class of R&B stars. In a timeline with a more daring Drizzy, I’d love to see what he and PinkPantheress could cook up. I feel like they could really surprise us!
Carl Lamarre: Drake x Travis. Time to run back “Sicko Mode” 2025 Edition and shake the globe again.
Jason Lipshutz: More “Nokia,” all the “Nokia.” Just ride the vibe of the genuinely euphoric hit that brought you back onto pop radio! I’ll take “Motorola,” followed by “Blackberry,” please and thank you, Drake.
Michael Saponara: Time stamp Drake. Conductor Williams beat. Go time.
Andrew Unterberger: One rapper, one producer, one hook, one subject and — most importantly — one beat. Drake gives us a focused pop song and the sky is still the limit.
