There’s just two full calendar months left in 2026, and with the holiday season fast approaching — and Halloween season actually approaching even faster — it feels like a good time to take stock of where we are on the Billboard Hot 100, and make some predictions for the year’s closing days.
After Ella Langley‘s “Choosin’ Texas” broke the record for longest stay at No. 1 on the Hot 100 with its 23rd week on top — and then added a 24th for good measure — it’s now been out of pole position for three weeks, replaced by Taylor Swift’s “Choosin’ Texas.” But a couple fast-rising hits could threaten both on the Hot 100 in the weeks to come, as could a number of debuts from high-profile artists that should impact the chart next week.
Which of those songs is the most likely to nab a week or two on top? And are we more interested in the Halloween or Christmas race for No. 1 this year? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
1. Following 24 weeks (including 12 in a row) on top for Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas,” Taylor Swift’s “Patient Zero” has been No. 1 for the last three weeks, with “Texas” bumped to No. 2. Which of the two songs do you think will have more weeks at No. 1 for the remainder of the calendar year?
Katie Atkinson: It all depends on when Mariah Season returns, but I’m thinking “Choosin’ Texas” could realistically have another month at No. 1 before the holidays. I don’t make a habit of betting against Taylor Swift, but I think Ella will easily two-step back to the top, just like she’s done multiple times before this year.
Kyle Denis: Probably “Choosin’ Texas”; Ella Langley is basically rewriting the definition of “insurmountable” before our very eyes.
Lyndsey Havens: Well, that depends on what each artist does about it. I think if Taylor releases new version every week from now until Christmas, “Patient Zero” will stay on top. If she doesn’t, then I do think at some point “Texas” will return to its spot at No. 1 — likely on and off between holiday music.
Andrew Unterberger: Unless there’s more “Patient Zero” physical releases to come, it seems a near-certainty that “Choosin’ Texas” will slip back ahead of it — likely as soon as next week — and from there, it’s a matter of if Swift has any more cards to play with boosting the song, or if radio jumps on it with far greater velocity than they usually jump on new pop songs with in 2026. For now, I’m betting on Ella.
Christine Werthman: The remaining time for either of these songs to sit at No. 1 is limited because Christmas music usually takes over the Hot 100 in November. If it were a different time of year, Ella would travel back to No. 1 and secure more weeks than Taylor, but “Zero” still has momentum, and I just don’t see “Texas” getting back to No. 1 before Carey Claus comes to town. I think Taylor’s got this one.
2. If you had to bet one song currently on the Hot 100 that hasn’t yet hit No. 1 reaching the spot in the next couple months, which would it be?
Katie Atkinson: I would love to see all the pop-cultural buzz around ADÉLA lead to her first No. 1 with “Nicole Kidman.” With all the celebrity-fueled memes using the song (looking at you, Madonna – not to mention the unexpected power quartet of Dua Lipa, Pedro Pascal, Kristen Wiig and Ms. Kidman herself), it would be a fitting coronation for the newly minted pop star to secure the pop crown jewel.
Kyle Denis: I’m going with ADÉLA’s “Nicole Kidman.” There’s real heat behind that song.
Lyndsey Havens: Sorry to immediately not follow the directions, but I’m betting on two different songs for two different reasons. First, I think “Dracula” could shoot to No. 1 between now and the first week of November, following a Halloween-encouraged spike in streams. Second, I’d bet on Adéla’s “Nicole Kidman” to get there without any holiday-assisted boost. The song is everywhere, from Paris Fashion Week to the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show to being performed live by Charli xcx — with an appearance from the pink-haired pop star herself. It’s trending in the right direction.
Andrew Unterberger: “Nicole Kidman” certainly feels like it should be the next to be anointed. The question, again, is radio — it’ll probably get there eventually, but top 40 is only now just starting to really embrace its predecessor “Ain’t in L.A.” So will the song’s impressive streaming numbers maintain long enough for when stations to start committing to “Nicole Kidman” too? And if they do, will it all happen in time before everything on the chart gets snowed in by the holiday rush? We’ll see — but it’s hard to imagine anything else on the chart currently has a better chance of contending.
Christine Werthman: I think Ashe’s “Stop the Wedding!” has room to grow. The stomping, dramatic single came out in August, and it already had a TikTok moment, but after five weeks on the chart, it just jumped from No. 64 to No. 48 following the Oct. 16 album release. That said, for No. 1, the surer bet might be the KG-Bitch herself, Adéla, and her song “Nicole Kidman.” It’s the perfect balance of sexy and absurd, and the distorted 1986 sample of “In My Father’s House” by the group God’s Gospel Angels that runs throughout gives the song a certain street cred (it was also used in separate instances by G Herbo and Boldy James). It too has been on the chart for five weeks, but its odds are looking a bit better, as it currently sits at No. 9.
3. With two months and change left in the year, who’s an artist (non-holiday-related) who maybe isn’t currently contending on the Hot 100 but you think could still be a major factor towards the top before the year’s up?
Katie Atkinson: It’s definitely worth watching how Tate McRae’s “Housewife,” which just arrived last week, performs. I remember when I saw the title of this song, I wondered if it was going to be some sort of tradwife fantasy or something, so I was pleasantly surprised to hear the chorus kick off with “I just wanna make a lot of money, be my own housewife.” The song went off at the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show over the weekend (a perfect booking) and Tate has never been buzzier, so this could be the one that catapults her to the next pop tier.
Kyle Denis: “Brand New Chanel$” may no longer be on the Hot 100, but the combined buzz around “I Think He’s Got A Girl,” Wor$t Man in America and a potentially impressive showing on Grammy nominations morning could bring Slayyyter back in the mix.
Lyndsey Havens: Noah Kahan is in the pool of folks I am always rooting for — and, given all his Grammy buzz, I could see some of his Great Divide songs enjoying a later-in-life climb up the Hot 100 as more listeners either discover or fall back into that album. There’s also a chance when the new Hunger Games film drops in November that his lead single, “Draw You Out,” enjoys an even better chart peak than its No. 25 debut. Another artist who is more of a wild card pick here is sombr — I think he’ll get his first Hot 100 No. 1 in 2027, but maybe it will come early if he releases a new single before the end of the year.
Andrew Unterberger: Don’t bet against Tate McRae. Though she doesn’t have the same critical acclaim — or even the same buzz from the more online pop superfans — as some of the other big pop stars of the moment, her numbers routinely dwarf those of hipper artists, and four days after the Friday release of “Housewife,” the song remains atop both the Spotify and Apple Music realtime charts. It might not get past Langley and Carey right away, but it’ll be within striking dance, and it’s not likely to go away any time soon.
Christine Werthman: Tate McRae. “Housewife” dropped a few days ago with a steamy dance video that currently has 7 million views on YouTube. It’s a little “Diet Pepsi” at the start, and when the beat picks up, it reminds me of Nelly Furtado’s “Maneater.” And since both of those are excellent tracks, does this mean that I like a Tate McRae song? Will others feel the same and also tune into “Housewife”? I think yes.
4. Speaking of holidays — we could have interesting races for the top spot in both the Halloween (between Tame Impala and JENNIE’s current top 5 hit “Dracula” and Michael Jackson’s classic “Thriller”) and Christmas (“Last Christmas” threatening to take over from “All I Want for Christmas Is You” on the 10th anniversary of George Michael’s death) weeks this year. Which one will you be following more closely?
Katie Atkinson: I love the idea of a Halloween bump shaking up the October Hot 100 every year, so I’m eagerly watching for what “Dracula” and/or “Thriller” can do this Spooky Season. That being said, I do feel like “Last Christmas” is poised to be the next first-time Christmas No. 1, following the three weeks Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” got back in 2023 during a brief break for Mariah.
Kyle Denis: The Halloween race feels way more interesting; the Christmas race ultimately comes down to the same handful of songs every year anyways.
Lyndsey Havens: Definitely the Christmas race. That’s the most compelling storyline here, as Mariah has very surely become the Queen of Christmas — so any threat to that crown creates a kind of holiday drama that is low-stakes enough to get behind.
Andrew Unterberger: Considering this is the first time we’ve ever used the term “Halloween race” in conjunction with the Hot 100, it’s got to be that. I am rooting for George Michael this Christmas, however.
Christine Werthman: Halloween. “Dracula” is… fine, but the JENNIE addition on the remix was an obvious chart play, and I am curious to see if it can take them all the way. Was it worth it, Kevin?! I guess if it goes higher than “Thriller,” perhaps it was.
5. What do you think has been the biggest Hot 100-related story so far this year?
Katie Atkinson: I mean, there’s no contest. Ella Langley shattered the Hot 100 record by spending 24 weeks at the top. There are a lot stories related to that milestone – like the top 10 staying pretty stagnant throughout the year and plenty of songs hanging around in the region a lot longer than they previously did – but they all lead back to Ella’s unstoppable run up top.
Kyle Denis: Obviously, Ella Langley… but I’m very impressed just how many deep cuts from You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love Rodrigo has kept on the Hot 100 — and for so many weeks at that! She’s charting nine songs from the album on this week’s Hot 100 over four months post-album release!
Lyndsey Havens: It has to be Ella. She made history! “Choosin’ Texas” has felt like the little song that could for most of the year, and it’s been pretty amazing to see its staying power even while listeners around the country continue to discover her.
Andrew Unterberger: In a single-artist or single-song sense, obviously “Choosin’ Texas.” But in a larger sense, I’m sorta stunned by how viral success just ain’t what it used to be — at least for newer artists. In recent years, we’ve seen explosive pop sensations like Chappell Roan and Olivia Dean come seemingly out of nowhere to swarm the Hot 100 with six or seven songs at once. These days, the only artists doing that are minted pop greats like Michael Jackson and Justin Bieber, thanks to pop culture moments bigger than any one song or album. Meanwhile, an artist like Slayyyter has earned nearly as much IRL buzz as Dean or Roan did in their respective breakout years — but has only hit the Hot 100 once so far, with a song that peaked at No. 98.
Christine Werthman: Ella Langley’s dominance. Twenty-four weeks at No. 1 is no joke. I think “Texas” is a great song (confirmed for me by her performance of it at Billboard’s Women in Music event in April), but I had no idea that it would stick around for so long.
