Now that Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department has entered the Billboard 200 at No. 1 and smashed sales records, thoughts turn to its next big test – how it will fare with Grammy voters.
If it is nominated for album of the year, Swift will become the first woman to receive seven album of the year nods, breaking out of a tie with Barbra Streisand, who received six nods from 1964-87. (All years in this story refer to the year of the Grammy ceremony.)
Swift would be the sixth artist to land seven or more album of the year nominations – and just the second artist to reach that mark strictly with solo albums.
Paul McCartney is the leader with nine album of the year nods – five with The Beatles, one (Band on the Run) with Paul McCartney & Wings and three as a solo artist.
Frank Sinatra and George Harrison are next in line with eight album of the year nods. Sinatra scored with seven solo albums and one collab, Francis Albert Sinatra & Antonio Carlos Jobim. Harrison scored with five Beatles albums; a solo album (All Things Must Pass); an all-star live album, The Concert for Bangla Desh, which was credited to George Harrison & Friends; and a Traveling Wilburys album (Volume One) on which he teamed with Bob Dylan, Roy Orbison, Tom Petty and Jeff Lynne.
Paul Simon follows with seven album of the year nods –- two with Simon & Garfunkel (Bookends and Bridge Over Troubled Water) and five on his own. Swift, if nominated, would pull into a tie with Simon for third place.
Swift’s last three studio albums, not counting her Taylor’s Versions re-recordings, were nominated for album of the year, though one of them just barely made it. The Recording Academy confirmed the accuracy of a New York Times report that Evermore placed ninth or 10th in the voting and was nominated only because, at the eleventh hour, the Academy expanded the field of nominees in each of the Big Four categories from eight to 10 that year (2022). After keeping the number of nominees at 10 the following year, the Academy returned to eight nominees in each of those categories for the telecast in February and will presumably hold it at that number for next year’s telecast, so Tortured Poets will have to do better than Evermore to be nominated. (Fittingly, that was a rather “tortured” explanation.)
If Tortured Poets is nominated, Swift will become the first artist to receive album of the year nominations with four consecutive official solo studio LPs since Kendrick Lamar (Swift’s colleague on “Bad Blood,” a No. 1 hit on the Billboard Hot 100) scored with good kid, m.A.A.d city, To Pimp a Butterfly, DAMN. and Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers. The last artist before Lamar to achieve this feat was Billy Joel, who scored with 52nd Street, Glass Houses, The Nylon Curtain and An Innocent Man.
It’s of course way too early to know with any certainty if Swift will be nominated. Compared to Swift’s recent releases, the new album has drawn somewhat mixed reviews. The album has a 76 rating on Metacritic.com, the review aggregation site. That’s a bit below the marks registered by her four previous studio albums (excluding Taylor’s Version albums). Lover had a 79, folklore an 88, and evermore and Midnights, both an 85. (An expanded version of the new album, dubbed The Anthology, has a lower rating, 69.)
Billboard’s Jason Lipshutz took stock of Swift’s album in a thoughtful review headlined, “Taylor Swift’s ‘The Tortured Poets Department’ Is Messy, Unguarded and Undeniably Triumphant: Critic’s Take.” Here are the first four paragraphs from Lipshutz’s review, which posted on April 19, the day the album was released.
“One of the constants of Taylor Swift’s storied career has been the chances she’s taken at the precise moment when taking a chance wasn’t necessary. She was a country superstar who didn’t need to go pop; she was less than a year removed from a major pop album and didn’t need to take an indie-folk detour; she was in the middle of a blockbuster run of new albums and didn’t need to re-record her old ones.
“Time and again, Swift has identified artistic opportunities that other stars would have blanched at (or at the very least, set aside for a different time, so as to not muck up any professional momentum), and she has leapt into them fearlessly, always coming out on top.
“So right now — in the middle of a mega-selling stadium tour, after a record-breaking fourth album of the year Grammy win, in a high-profile new romance and at the commercial zenith of an already all-time career — is, naturally, the time Swift has chosen to release a knowingly messy, wildly unguarded breakup album.
“She didn’t have to do this! But then again, making an album like The Tortured Poets Department is exactly what separates Swift from her more careful peers. Challenging herself to shape-shift, to accomplish something new at the moment anyone else would rest on their laurels, is what makes her so fascinating.”
Other albums that are seen as front-runners for album of the year nominations include Beyoncé‘s Cowboy Carter, Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine and Bad Bunny’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Manana. Upcoming albums that are seen as likely prospects include Dua Lipa’s Radical Optimism (due May 3) and Billie Eilish’s Hurt Me Hard & Soft (due May 17). The eligibility period ends Sept. 15.
If both Beyoncé and Swift are nominated, this will be the second time the two superstars have faced off in this category. In 2010, Swift’s Fearless beat Bey’s I Am…Sasha Fierce.
Could Swift possibly win her record-extending fifth award in the category? I have learned to never say never, especially when it concerns Swift at the Grammys. But more than a few Grammy watchers would howl if Swift won a fifth album of the year award before Beyoncé won her first in the category.
It would probably be better for Swift if she lost the big one and was seen leading the cheers for Beyoncé. If that does happen – and at this moment, it seems the likeliest scenario – this would be the third time in Grammy history that there has been a reversal of fortune in the top category, where there was a different outcome in a rematch.
At the first Grammy Awards in May 1959, Henry Mancini won album of the year for The Music From Peter Gunn, his jazzy score to the TV detective series of the same name. It beat a pair of Frank Sinatra albums, Frank Sinatra Sings for Only the Lonely and Come Fly With Me. (Did the double nominations cause Sinatra to “split his votes”? We’ll never know for sure, but the rules have since been changed so that an artist can be nominated with only one album as the lead artist in any one year.)
Mancini and Sinatra competed again at the second Grammy Awards in November 1959 (yes, there were two ceremonies that year) with the opposite result. Sinatra’s Come Dance With Me! beat More Music From Peter Gunn, a sequel to Mancini’s album.
Sinatra and The Beatles competed for album of the year three years in a row, 1966-68. Sinatra’s highly regarded thematic album September of My Years (which contained the classic “It Was a Very Good Year”) won the award in 1966, beating The Beatles’ Help! soundtrack. Sinatra’s A Man and His Music, a two-disc career retrospective, won the award in 1967, beating The Beatles’ Revolver. (That victory by Ol’ Blue Eyes is harder to defend, since his album was a career recap, and Revolver was another step forward by a group that was growing by leaps and bounds.) In 1968, The Beatles’ landmark album Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band beat Francis Albert Sinatra & Antonio Carlos Jobim, the singer’s widely admired collab with the architect of the bossa nova sound.
Swift co-produced her new album with Jack Antonoff, Aaron Dessner and Patrik Berger. Antonoff has been nominated for producer of the year, non-classical the last five years running – and has won the last three years in a row.
If Antonoff is nominated again this year, he’ll be the first producer or production team to be nominated six years in a row since Jimmy Jam & Terry Lewis, who were nominated each year from 2001-2006. Moreover, if he is nominated again, Antonoff will become one of just five producers or production teams to land six or more producer of the year nods (whether consecutive or nod). He will join Jam & Lewis (11 total nods), Quincy Jones (eight), David Foster (eight) and Babyface (six).
If Antonoff wins in that category again early next year, he’ll become the first producer to ever win four years in a row. Babyface is the only producer to win four times – in 1993 (with L.A. Reid) and then on his own from 1996-98.
