During the years of 2021 through 2023, R. Kelly’s music catalog averaged nearly 315,000 album consumption units each year in the U.S. — which, Billboard estimates, has generated about $2.3 million annually for the singer, adding together earnings from his master recording and publishing from those works.
But assessing Kelly’s earnings isn’t that simple — this estimate doesn’t include royalties he derives from his outside work for other recording artists as a producer and songwriter, nor does it include royalties from cover versions of songs he recorded or that he wrote for other artists. Sources familiar with Kelly’s royalties say these additional income sources amount to several million more per year.
And there are other factors that play into how much Kelly himself earns from his works. In total, Billboard estimates that Kelly’s recorded master catalog generated an average of $4.1 million per year in revenue for the three years under consideration, while his publishing catalog — bolstered by Kelly being the sole writer on the majority of his songs — generated about $2.3 million per year in total for all stakeholders during the period.
Sources say that Kelly doesn’t own the master recordings he made during his period as a chart-topping artist, which accounts for the majority of the activity on his catalog. (His later period recordings, which Kelly may own, don’t fare as well in generating sales and streams.) So if he earns a blended royalty rate of 35% — a common rate for superstar artists — Billboard estimates he earned approximately $1.425 million per year from his master recordings. Even if Kelly doesn’t own his publishing from his most popular music, he doesn’t have many co-writers, so he lays claim to a large share of his publishing. Considering that songwriters later in their career tend to own their publishing or sign new contracts where they have a share in their publishing, Billboard estimates that Kelly’s royalties from his master recordings publishing comes out to about $865,000. When added to his estimated master recording royalties, that comes out to the $2.3 million figure.
A lawyer for Kelly disputed Billboard’s estimates, calling them “speculative,” and wouldn’t provide further information.
Beyond Billboard’s estimates, Kelly’s royalties include production fees for other artists in the Sony Music Entertainment system — for example, Aaliyah’s 1994 debut album Age Ain’t Nothing But a Number, originally released on Jive but now available through Sony’s Legacy label, which means Sony pays him the royalty for that recording, too. Sony also pays him publishing royalties on recordings that it owns. (Kelly himself had been signed to a publishing deal through Universal Music Publishing Group.) But it’s unclear how much additional revenue that generates for him per year.
In terms of the publishing revenue generated by Kelly’s own artist catalog, Billboard’s ballpark estimate is buttressed by financial data supplied to the Eastern Division of the Federal Court of Illinois, with regards to restitution needed in that court case.
According to the court documents, Kelly (who under a traditional publishing deal would receive 50% of the revenue generated by the publishing catalog) was paid $442,0000 on Aug. 28, 2022 for the first half of the year; and, as of Dec. 31, UMPG was holding another $384,000, for a combined annual total of $826,000. That implies total full-year publishing revenue of $1.65 million, which is below Billboard’s overall publishing estimate of $2.3 million. But the UMPG statement excludes his performance royalties paid directly to him by performance rights organizations.
In a few years, his publishing royalties could grow thanks to the U.S. Copyright Law, which allows, after 35 years, for writers to reclaim ownership of creative works issued after 1978. As Kelly’s first song appeared in 1992, that means that in 2027, the songs issued that year would become eligible for copyright termination and reversion for the U.S. portion of his publishing catalog if he or his representatives follow the regulations to affect termination. However, a search of the U.S. Copyright Office public database does not turn up any “notice of termination” filings from Kelly. While the law allows for notices to be filed up to 10 years before the 35-year period expires, Kelly has until 2025 to file for the songs issued in 1992 in order for termination to come into effect by 2027.
It would be difficult for Kelly to have his own catalog sold, considering his convictions in New York and Chicago that have him spending decades in prison and that have scared away many music-asset investors. But using a blended 16-times multiple on Billboard’s estimate of his $2.3 million average annual revenue, that estimated value is around $37 million.
But Kelly likely has a very valuable income stream from his works as a songwriter and producer for other artists, which could very well reap a nice valuation should it ever come to market.
Additional reporting by Bill Donahue.
