The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated April 19, we look at a number of albums threatening to end the seven-week reign of Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s “Luther” — led by a recent rival’s own runaway hit.
Drake, “Nokia” (Santa Anna/OVO/Republic): Well at this point, it’s official: Drake has another smash on his hands. Aided by the debut last Monday (March 31) of the song’s long-awaited, IMAX-filmed music video, “Nokia” jumps from No. 7 to a new peak of No. 3 on the Hot 100 this week – now making it the biggest hit from his and PartyNextDoor’s new collaborative album $ome $exy $ongs 4 U, passing the No. 6 peak of “Gimme a Hug,” and rating as his highest-peaking hit since 2013.
Now, it’s a question of whether it could climb those last two spots to No. 1. It’s certainly trending in the right direction, as its streaming numbers continue to climb, with the song currently sitting atop both the Apple Music real-time chart and the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA listing. It’s also been lingering near the top of the iTunes realtime chart, after rebounding to No. 2 on the Digital Song Sales chart last week. And most crucially, it’s been growing on radio, debuting at No. 44 on Radio Songs this week and trending towards the top 40 for next week (up 32% in audience from March 4-7, according to Luminate).
That last part is where it has the most ground to make up if it’s going to have any shot at unseating the current longtime frontrunner – which just happens to be from Drake’s recent opponent on the mic, Kendrick Lamar, with SZA on the seven-week No. 1 “Luther.” That song tops Radio Songs for the first time this week, and should be widening its lead on the listing next week, while also still reigning on Streaming Songs. Drake’s got the momentum, but he’s going to probably have to keep riding it for a little while to replicate his Billboard 200 unseating of Lamar a couple months ago on the Hot 100.
Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): One of the surprise breakout hits of 2025 has come from YouTuber-turned-performing artist Alex Warren. The California singer-songwriter has been climbing the Hot 100 in recent weeks with his ballad “Ordinary” — which first took off on TikTok, and then exploded after he performed it on a reunion episode for season eight of Netflix’s hit reality show Love Is Blind. Last week, the song became Warren’s first top 20 hit on the Hot 100, and this week, it jumps another six spots to No. 14 on the chart.
Next week, the song might have the top 10 in its sights. It continues to build on streaming, now residing in the top 10 on both the Apple Music real-time and Spotify daily charts, and has taken over the top spot on the iTunes real-time chart as well. Most crucially, radio is beginning to embrace “Ordinary,” with the song up 81% to more than four million in airplay audience March 4-7, according to Luminate, as it debuts at No. 31 on the Pop Airplay chart this week. The U.S. is just catching up to the rest of the world at this point, as “Ordinary” has already reached No. 3 on both Billboard Global charts, as well as topping the Official UK Singles chart for three weeks and counting.
BigXthaPlug feat. Bailey Zimmerman, “All the Way” (UnitedMasters): BigXthaPlug and Bailey Zimmerman have both been frequent presences on the Hot 100 the past couple years, and now both look to potentially be headed for their biggest hit yet with their new collab. “All the Way,” expected to be the lead single from an upcoming country-themed set from rapper BigX, is off to an awesome start on streaming — rating in the top five on Spotify’s daily chart and behind only “Nokia” at No. 2 on Apple Music, while its domestic drama-and-monster-trucks-themed music video leads even “Nokia” on YouTube’s trending page for Music. The song hasn’t found its radio footing yet, but if it ever does, it looks like it could easily become one of the biggest hits of spring and summer.
Morgan Wallen, “Just in Case” (Big Loud/Republic/Mercury): Morgan Wallen currently has five songs rating in the top 40 of the Hot 100 – including last year’s “Love Somebody” and Post Malone-led “I Had Some Help,” as well as newer cuts “I’m the Problem” and “I’m a Little Crazy.” But the one with the most momentum currently is probably “Just in Case,” which notches a second week in the top 10 at No. 8. this week, after debuting at No. 4. The song is still performing very well on DSPs, and has already started making inroads at radio, where it is likely to jump into the Country Airplay top 40 next week – meaning it could be peaking right around the time Wallen releases his highly anticipated fourth album I’m the Problem next month.
